As the 2026 U.S. tax filing season approaches, economists, government agencies, and major financial news organizations are closely examining how recent federal tax legislation could affect household refunds. Several analyses published by reputable outlets suggest that many taxpayers may see higher refunds compared with recent years, although outcomes will vary depending on income, filing status, and individual circumstances.
The discussion centers on tax changes enacted in mid-2025, which the Trump administration and the U.S. Department of the Treasury have described as providing broad-based tax relief for workers and families. Independent analysts have also assessed the potential impact of these provisions, offering a more nuanced picture of how refunds could change in 2026.
Background: The 2025 Tax Legislation
According to official White House and Treasury Department statements, the tax legislation signed into law on July 4, 2025, was designed to adjust individual income tax provisions, expand certain deductions, and modify withholding rules. Administration materials describe the law as aimed at increasing take-home pay and reducing overall tax liability for qualifying taxpayers.
Congressional records confirm that the bill passed after a party-line vote, with support primarily from Republican lawmakers and opposition from Democratic members of Congress. As with prior tax reforms, the full effects are expected to emerge gradually as taxpayers file returns under the updated rules.
What Financial Analysts Are Projecting
Several major financial news organizations have published projections based on data from economic research firms and tax policy groups:
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Business Insider cited estimates from the Tax Foundation indicating that the average federal tax refund could increase compared with earlier filing seasons. The organization emphasized that refund size depends heavily on how much tax was withheld during the year, rather than reflecting a simple “bonus” payment from the government.
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CBS News reported on an analysis by Oxford Economics suggesting that some provisions of the 2025 legislation apply retroactively to the start of the tax year. According to that analysis, this could result in higher refunds or lower tax bills for certain filers in 2026, with total taxpayer savings potentially reaching tens of billions of dollars nationwide.
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CNBC referenced commentary from economists and tax professionals who expect that changes to deductions and credits may raise refunds for a portion of filers. However, the outlet also noted that individuals who adjusted their withholding accurately during the year may see smaller refunds but higher take-home pay.
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The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by investment firm Piper Sandler suggesting that average refunds could be higher than in previous years, while cautioning that averages can mask wide variation among taxpayers.
Understanding How Refunds Work
Tax experts consistently stress that a larger refund does not necessarily mean a taxpayer paid less in total taxes. Refunds primarily reflect the difference between taxes owed and taxes already paid through payroll withholding or estimated payments.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) explains that when withholding exceeds actual tax liability, the excess is returned as a refund. Changes in tax law can affect refunds in several ways, including:
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Adjustments to tax brackets and standard deductions
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Changes to refundable and non-refundable tax credits
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Modifications to payroll withholding tables
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New or expanded deductions for specific expenses
As a result, two taxpayers with similar incomes may see different refund outcomes depending on how they filed their W-4 forms, whether they claimed dependents, and whether they qualify for specific credits.
Claims From the Administration
The White House and the U.S. Department of the Treasury have released fact sheets outlining what they describe as expected benefits of the 2025 tax law. These materials state that the legislation aims to allow workers and families to retain a greater share of their earnings and to provide relief to small businesses.
Administration projections include estimates of increased disposable income for some workers and higher aggregate refunds nationwide. These figures are forward-looking projections and are not guarantees for individual taxpayers. Treasury officials have emphasized that actual results will depend on economic conditions and individual filing situations.
Key Provisions Highlighted in Official Materials
According to government summaries, provisions included in the legislation address areas such as:
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Tax treatment of certain types of income
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Adjustments to deductions related to employment and retirement
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Incentives connected to domestic manufacturing and small business activity
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Modifications intended to simplify filing for some households
The Treasury Department has stated that it will continue to issue guidance to help taxpayers and employers comply with the updated rules.
What Taxpayers Should Do Now
Financial advisors and the IRS recommend that taxpayers prepare early for the 2026 filing season by:
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Reviewing current withholding using the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator
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Keeping records of income, deductions, and eligible credits
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Monitoring official IRS updates and instructions
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Consulting qualified tax professionals for personalized advice
Experts also caution against relying solely on headlines or political statements when estimating a refund. Refund outcomes are individualized, and projections reported in the media reflect averages rather than guaranteed amounts.
A Cautious but Notable Shift
Based on reporting from Business Insider, CBS News, CNBC, and The Wall Street Journal, there is broad agreement among analysts that many taxpayers could see higher refunds in 2026 compared with recent years, particularly if they qualify for newly adjusted deductions or credits. At the same time, reputable sources consistently note that outcomes will vary and that higher refunds often reflect changes in withholding rather than direct payments.
As the IRS prepares for the upcoming filing season, additional data will clarify how the 2025 tax law affects households across income levels. For now, taxpayers are encouraged to rely on official guidance and well-sourced financial reporting to understand what to expect.